Affordability Draws Renters, First-Time Buyers into Winnipeg Housing Market, Despite High Tax Rate

A significant uptick in sales and values in the Winnipeg housing market in the last six weeks of 2023 has set the stage for home-buying activity in 2024, according to findings from RE/MAX Canada’s 2024 Tax Report. Listings that had lingered on the market were quickly snapped up, some in multiple-offer situations, between mid-November and mid-December. The same momentum has been noted in the first two weeks of January as the potential for an end to the Bank of Canada’s stance on quantitative tightening grows increasingly likely after four rate pauses in a row.

There has been a considerable increase in the number of renters getting into the market, in large part due to rental rates that look more like mortgage payments at present. First time buyers, many of whom are new to the country, would rather own their homes than paying off someone else’s mortgage. As such, the land transfer and property taxes are just part of the process, despite property rate taxes that are amongst the highest in the country. The vast majority of first-time purchasers are coming to the table with at least two percent of the property’s value set aside for land transfer taxes and closing costs.

For move up buyers, they’ve generally factored the land transfer tax into the equation. However, at higher price points, from $750,000 to $1 million, buyers may put their decision to move on pause, opting to renovate instead. Seniors, particularly those who have lost partners and live alone, may choose to age in place rather than undertaking the additional costs, not to mention the stress of a move.

The greatest activity remains at lower price points, where inventory levels are particularly low. The Winnipeg housing market is one of Canada’s most affordable, with an average price in 2023 hovering at just over $400,000 (approximately $5,700 in land transfer tax). Most first-time buyers are looking at properties priced between $350,000 and $450,000. Trade-up buyers are typically active between $500,000 and $750,000.

Like other parts of the country, overall housing stock in the city remains low. Yet, net international migration, comprised of immigrants, net emigration, and net non-permanent residents, added an estimated 36,000 to Manitoba’s population in the first three quarters of 2023, according to Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates: Provinces and Territories Interactive Dashboard. Population growth is expected to contribute to housing market activity in Winnipeg in the year ahead, bolstered by an anticipated fall in interest rates in the second or third quarters.

Methodology for Residential Land Transfer Tax in the Winnipeg Housing Market

0 – $30,000 – No Tax
$30,001 to $90,000 – 0.5 per cent
$90,001 to $150,000 – 1 per cent
$150,001 to $200,000 – 1.5 per cent
$200,000 and above – 2 per cent

.

*Leger online survey of 1,517 Canadians aged 18+ was completed between July 21 and 23, 2023, using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. 

**This report includes data and insights about Canadian housing markets supplied by RE/MAX brokerages and sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association and local real estate boards. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Each RE/MAX office is independently owned and operated.

About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward looking statements
This report includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as “believe,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “outlook,” “project,” and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company’s results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management’s good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company’s business, the Company’s ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company’s ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company’s franchisees’ ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company’s ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company’s ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company’s website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.