Canadian Housing Market Outlook: Fall 2022 - Blue Mountain Real Estate

RE/MAX Canada Network expects Canadian housing market prices to decrease 2.2 per cent this fall

RE/MAX brokers and agents anticipate prices in the Canadian housing market to ease by 2.2 per cent this fall, due to high inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty
Rising interest rates have prompted 44 per cent of Canadians to temporarily shelf their home-buying aspirations, while 34 per cent say they won’t hold on purchasing a home for the foreseeable future
Recession worries have impelled 41 per cent of Canadians to wait to purchase/sell their home in fall 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, September 28, 2022 – RE/MAX brokers and agents are anticipating the national average residential sale price in the Canadian housing market to decline 2.2 per cent in the final months of the year (September-December), according to RE/MAX’s 2022 Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. This market moderation comes on the heels of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and broader global and economic uncertainties that have impacted consumer confidence and market activity. Bucking the downward trend, seven out of 30 Canadian housing markets analyzed are likely to experience modest price appreciation between 1.5 and seven per cent. Meanwhile, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect a decline in sales this fall, in 18 out of 30 markets surveyed.

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In a survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents, 25 out of 30 said rising interest rates have affected activity in their local residential market this year, with some indicating that this has been the biggest factor impacting homebuyer and seller confidence – a trend that is likely to continue for the remainder of 2022. These insights are supported by a new Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada, which reveals that 44 per cent of Canadians agree that rising interest rates are compelling them to hold on buying a property this fall, while 34 per cent say they won’t hold.

“While we are still facing significant housing supply shortages across the Canadian housing market, many regions are experiencing softer sales activity given recent interest rate hikes. This provides some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases we’ve seen across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President at RE/MAX Canada. “However, the current lull in the market is only temporary. Until housing supply increases, these ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ cycles will likely be a recurring event.”

“Despite the fact that nearly half of Canadians are waiting to buy or sell a home, we’re confident that as economic conditions improve by mid-2023, activity will resume,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Timing the market for short-term investment is extremely difficult and rarely successful. But as a long-term investment, the Canadian housing market continues to yield solid returns. If someone needs to buy or sell, regardless of those cyclical peaks and valleys, being informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help consumers clarify some of those unknowns and make the best decision possible.”

Regional Canadian Housing Market Trends

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market this fall and share their estimated outlook for the remaining months of 2022 (September-December).

Western Canada and the Prairies

In regions such as Vancouver, BC, Victoria, BC, Kelowna, BC, and Edmonton, AB, RE/MAX brokers reported rising interest rates as a factor impacting local market activity, resulting in softening consumer confidence, fewer multiple offers from buyers, and a shift toward more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers. In all regions analyzed in Western Canada and the Prairies, with the exception of Calgary, AB and Edmonton, AB, the average residential sale price is expected to decline between zero and 6.5 per cent.

In Calgary, AB, interest rate hikes and recession worries have not had a notable effect on the market, due to the region’s relative affordability. As such, a modest three-per-cent price increase is expected through the remainder of the year. In Edmonton, AB, rising interest rates have had the greatest impact on homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000, while those priced at $400,000 or less are still relatively affordable and a good entry point into the market, despite the current economic climate. Edmonton is likely to experience a modest price increase of 1.5 per cent for the remainder of the year. In both Vancouver, BC and Edmonton, AB, demand for luxury properties has remained stable, with interest rate hikes having a minimal impact on this segment of the market. This is expected to continue into the fall months. Low inventory remains a pressing concern in Kelowna, BC, Victoria, BC, Vancouver, BC and Calgary, AB, and is expected to place upward pressure on home prices in 2023 and beyond. In contrast, recent commercial and industrial developments have eased inventory concerns in Winnipeg, MB for the time being.

Ontario

Much like other provinces across the country, Ontario has not been immune to the impacts of rising interest rates. Many markets including Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo, anticipate – and in some cases already experiencing – a reduction in the number of units sold over the coming months. Apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10 per cent in the fall months.

Similar to Western Canada, the luxury market has remained resilient and in-demand among buyers in Oakville, despite rising interest rates and a looming recession – a contributing factor to the modest two-per-cent average residential sale price increase expected in Oakville this fall. Muskoka continues to attract homebuyers to the area, while simultaneously, many sellers are eager to sell before year-end. Given a steady stream of demand, Muskoka is expected to experience a modest five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price this fall. In Peterborough, interest rate hikes and the subsequent effects on the stress test have eroded affordability in the area, which is the main factor contributing to the seven-per-cent decrease in average residential sale price expected in the coming months. The return of conditional offers has been a prevalent trend across the province, including in Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo, Muskoka and Peterborough. Echoing many regions across Canada, Durham, London, Sudbury, Ottawa, the Lakelands and the Greater Toronto housing market are expected to regain balance in 2023, albeit with low inventory continuing to place upward pressure on prices. As one of the more affordable markets in Ontario, Thunder Bay is unlikely to experience any significant fluctuations in average residential sale prices this fall.

Atlantic Canada*

Similar to Western Canada and Ontario, economic factors such as rising interest rates and a possible recession have contributed to decelerated home-buying activity in the region. Charlottetown, PEI experienced immediate impacts as interest rates rose, with the number of sale transactions reduced by almost half on a month-over-month basis, particularly among properties in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range. Despite these circumstances, Atlantic Canada continues to attract out-of-province buyers due to its affordability, relative to the rest of Canada. The majority of Atlantic Canada housing markets analyzed are expected to experience modest price increases through the end of 2022, including Halifax, NS (+1.5%), Moncton, NB (+6%) and St. John’s, NL (+7%). The outlier is Charlottetown, PEI, where average residential sale price is expected to decline by two per cent in the fall months.

Housing affordability continues to attract buyers in Moncton, who have been able to leverage the recent decrease in demand to negotiate with sellers and include conditions on purchases. Meanwhile in St. John’s, NL, economic pressure from rising interest rates has resulted in extended rent periods by would-be buyers, despite this region anticipating an increase of seven per cent in average residential sale prices. The trend has been further exacerbated by low housing inventory. However, recent “green” government announcements and initiatives are anticipated to boost the local economy and in tandem, the housing market. In spite of concerns over supply falling short of demand, Charlottetown, PEI is expected to regain more balance in 2023. However, inflation coupled with the increased cost of living will likely result in a moderate two-per-cent decline in average residential sale prices through the end of 2022.

About the 2022 RE/MAX Canada Fall Outlook Report

The 2022 RE/MAX Canada Fall Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Average sale price is reflective of all property types in a region and varies depending on the region. When referring to “fall” this includes the months of September 2022-December 2022. *Insights/figures in Atlantic Canada were gathered prior to Hurricane Fiona. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at the RE/MAX Canada blog.

About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,522 Canadians was completed between September 16 and 18, 2022, using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward looking statements
This report includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as “believe,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “outlook,” “project,” and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company’s results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management’s good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company’s business, the Company’s ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company’s ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company’s franchisees’ ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company’s ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company’s ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company’s website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

PAST CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOKS & REPORT ARCHIVES

RE/MAX 2022 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Confidence continues in Canadian housing market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022

Migration between provinces expected to continue in 2022, potentially impacting local Canadian real estate conditions, according to 53 per cent of RE/MAX brokers (20 out of 38)
49 per cent of Canadians believe the housing market will remain steady in 2022 and view real estate as one of the best investment options over the next year
Some of the highest outlooks are anticipated for Atlantic Canada, with Moncton and Halifax projecting average residential sales prices to increase by 20 per cent and 16 per cent respectively in 2022
97 per cent of regions (37 out of 38) surveyed are likely to remain seller’s markets in 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, December 1, 2021 – RE/MAX is anticipating steady price growth across the Canadian real estate market in 2022, with inter-provincial migration continuing to be a key driver of housing activity in many regions, based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents, as reflected in the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, putting upward pressure on prices. As a result of these factors, RE/MAX Canada estimates a 9.2-per-cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country*.

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“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space. In order for these regions to retain these appealing qualities and their relative market balance, housing supply needs to be added. Without more homes and in the face of rising demand, there’s potential for conditions in these regions to shift further.”

Despite the global pandemic, many Canadians still feel confident in the real estate market. According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 49 per cent of respondents believe Canadian real estate will remain one of their best investment options in 2022 (59 per cent of homeowners vs. 34 per cent non-homeowners which included renters, those not looking buy, and those currently looking to purchase). Additionally, 49 per cent of respondents are confident the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes. However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that many are feeling confident in the housing market in 2022 and view Canadian real estate as a solid investment.”

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2022 Regional Canadian Real Estate Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2021 and share their estimated outlook for 2022. Based on their insights, 97 per cent of Canadian real estate markets are expected to favour sellers, impacted by limited housing supply and high demand.

WESTERN CANADA

The Calgary and Edmonton markets shifted from balanced conditions in 2020 to seller’s markets in 2021, which brokers and agents in the region expect to continue into 2022. This is attributed to heightened demand prompted by the inter-provincial migration trend that took place throughout 2021, which saw many homebuyers from Ontario and British Columbia driving demand high, while supply remained low.

In addition to an increase in out-of-province buyers flocking to Edmonton, the region has also welcomed investors who found themselves priced out of other markets. RBC’s provincial outlook for Alberta puts this province ahead of all others in terms of economic growth in 2022, which should bode well for homebuyers and investors alike 2022.

Regions such as Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna also experienced an influx of buyers in search of larger properties and greater affordability, which is likely to continue pushing demand and prices up in 2022. This trend has notably increased demand for single-family detached homes and in some regions, condos as well, which may continue in 2022.

Despite some buyers choosing to move away from urban centres such as Vancouver/Greater Vancouver in favour of suburban areas within British Columbia, or leaving the province entirely, Vancouver/Greater Vancouver has remained a quality place to live. The region continues to draw interest from Canadian and international buyers, a trend that is likely to grow next year, in tandem with rising immigration. Vancouver/Greater Vancouver is expected to remain a seller’s market in 2022, providing inventory stays tight and current demand continues, according to a RE/MAX broker in Greater Vancouver Area.

Winnipeg is anticipated to continue to be a seller’s market in 2022. Young couples enjoying the freedom to work from home have been driving much of the demand in the region, especially for one- and two-story detached homes. The appeal of Winnipeg has had less to do with affordability, and more with lifestyle shifts such as hybrid working environments.

ONTARIO

According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity across the province is anticipated to remain steady in 2022, with continued average price growth, although at widely varying degrees. RE/MAX brokers anticipate average sale price increases in smaller markets such as North Bay (four per cent); Sudbury (five per cent); Thunder Bay (10 per cent); Collingwood/Georgian Bay (10 per cent); and Muskoka (20 per cent), where the move-over trend has remained strong. Meanwhile, in larger markets within the province, there’s a possibility that more immigration could weigh on supply levels and prices, including Ottawa (five per cent); Durham (seven per cent); Brampton (eight per cent); Toronto (10 per cent); Mississauga (14 per cent).

When it comes to price appreciation year-over-year, there are a few regions that stood out in 2021 for their exponential increases across all property types, including Brampton, which rose from $869,107 in 2020 to $1,085,417 in 2021 (25 per cent); Durham from $706,818 in 2020 to $914,48 in 2021 (29 per cent); and London from $487,500 in 2020 to $633,700 in 2021 (30 per cent). In comparison, Toronto experienced a modest seven-per-cent increase year-over-year ($986,085 in 2020 to $1,054,922 in 2021).

ATLANTIC CANADA

All of Atlantic Canada’s regions analyzed are currently seller’s markets, with potential for average sale prices to increase between five to 20 per cent in 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Larger urban centres including Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St. John’s have all experienced an influx of out-of-province buyers, especially from Ontario, moving to the region in search of greater affordability and liveability.

Due to this spike in demand, much of the region has experienced increasing competition, especially among single-family detached homes and condos in some cities. There’s a possibility that this may further be amplified as immigration continues to grow in the region.

According to RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region, new construction is anticipated to remain strong into 2022, although construction activity may be dampened by ongoing supply shortages and delays in permits related to the pandemic backlog.

Seller’s market conditions are expected to prevail across the region in 2022, with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia, which may return more to a balanced state as activity gradually begins to decrease.

These factors have led to some of the highest price outlooks in the country, with Halifax and Moncton projecting estimated average residential sales price to increase by 16, and 20 per cent respectively.

Additional findings from the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report

Two-in-five Canadians trust their agent to advise them during the current real estate landscape (43 per cent)
23 per cent of Canadians now have a greater desire to build their own home or buy pre-construction
26 per cent of Canadians have the desire to purchase a home while mortgage rates remain low
62 per cent of Canadians currently own a home. This is higher among those ages 35+ (70 per cent) compared with Millennials, ages 18-34 (42 per cent)
The majority of Canadians (72 per cent) said rising home prices did not impact their purchasing decisions in 2021.

About the 2022 Housing Market Outlook Report

The 2022 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transaction in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021 – October 31, 2022.

About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,554 Canadians was completed between October 29-31, 2021 using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in over 8,600 offices across more than 110 countries and territories. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

RE/MAX 2021 FALL HOUSING MARKET REPORT

Canadian housing market expected to remain strong this fall, despite Delta variant, say RE/MAX brokers and realtors

Young families driving demand for single-detached homes in cities across the country

Canadian housing market prices are anticipated to increase by 5% in the remaining months of 2021, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents.
27/30 major Canadian housing markets analyzed are seller’s markets, driven by lack of supply and high demand.

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, October 5, 2021 – Early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across the Canadian housing market suggest steady activity for the remainder of 2021. According to the RE/MAX Canada 2021 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect the average residential sale price for all home types could increase by five per cent from now until the end of the year.

Single-detached homes experienced the biggest price gains when comparing 2021* to 2020 data, rising between 6.8 and 27.3 per cent across 27 markets surveyed in the report. RE/MAX brokers and agents expect this trend to continue into the fall, driven by strong demand by young families.

“As our brokers and agents predict, the fall market activity is expected to remain steady, which is promising, despite the ongoing challenges presented by the Delta variant,” says Christopher Alexander, Senior Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “This is particularly relevant given the Canadian housing markets is often a good indicator of economic activity in the country, and with the Bank of Canada forecasting economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2022, a strong fall housing market is a good sign that things may be starting to return to a more natural rhythm.”

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Regional Canadian Housing Market Overview

WESTERN CANADA

High housing prices, driven up by low supply and high demand, have created challenging conditions for many homebuyers across Canada, especially in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. However, affordable options still exist for homebuyers who are considering alternative markets, thanks to their continued ability to work remotely. RE/MAX brokers have reported this trend in Edmonton and Calgary, where buyers are leveraging increased purchasing power thanks to local housing affordability coupled with lower interest rates. RE/MAX brokers and agents anticipate this trend to continue through the remainder of 2021.

When comparing activity year-over-year (YoY) average sale prices across single-detached homes, condos and townhomes, British Columbia’s Nanaimo, Victoria and Vancouver experienced significant price growth, at 23 per cent, 19.1 per cent and 16.4 per cent, respectively. Nanaimo also saw one of the largest price surges in its condo and townhome segments when compared to other Western Canada regions, with average condo prices currently sitting at $343,713 (a 17.6-per-cent increase YoY), and townhomes at $492,536 (a 21.9-per-cent increase YoY). In Calgary and Regina, the fall outlooks are relatively status quo, with prices expected to remain flat in Calgary and up one per cent in Regina. Meanwhile, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Victoria, Winnipeg and Nanaimo are expected to see price gains ranging between four and nine per cent through the remainder of the year, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents.

ONTARIO

Unsurprisingly, Ontario has seen some of the highest average residential price increases across single-detached homes in the country, with the majority of regions (13 out of 16), experiencing increases between 20 and 35.5 per cent YoY. The outlier markets that experienced price increases below 20 per cent include Toronto (+14.6 per cent), Thunder Bay (+17.1 per cent) and Mississauga (+19.7 per cent).

The condo and townhome segment in all of these regions has also performed well, with smaller and more suburban markets such as Kitchener, North Bay, London, Peterborough, and Southern Georgian Bay seeing a higher surge YoY. The estimated price outlook for the remainder of the year ranges from a two-per-cent price decrease in North Bay, to increases across the other regions ranging between two and 15 per cent.

ATLANTIC CANADA

Housing market activity in Atlantic Canada remained persistent YoY, with Halifax and Moncton seeing significant price increases across all property types. Single-detached homes in Halifax rose 24.3 per cent YoY, from $402,484 to $500,147. Meanwhile, Moncton detached prices gained 21.2 per cent YoY, from $233,676 to $282,886. The condo and townhome segments in Halifax, Saint John and Moncton all saw prices surge between 12.5 per cent and 48.9 per cent YoY.

Housing prices in St. John’s, NFLD were more tempered, with single-detached homes rising 8.4 per cent YoY (from $343,070 in 2020 to $371,970 in 2021) and townhomes experiencing a 2.8-per-cent increase, from $247,432 in 2020 to $254,462 in 2021. Condominiums were the only property segment to see a decline in average price, down 1.9 per cent YoY, from $261,425 in 2020 to $256,415 in 2021. However, sales in the region have been brisk across all property types, with detached-home sales up 60.4 per cent YoY, condominium sales up 75.7 per cent, and townhome sales up 94.1 per cent.

Moncton in particular is expected to continue strong, with one of the highest price outlooks for the remainder of 2021, between 12 and 15 per cent. Saint John is expected to see more-tempered price growth, ranging between one- to three-per-cent across all property types, while Halifax could see a six-per-cent increase in average sale price for the remainder of the year. In St. John’s, detached home prices are expected to rise one per cent through the remainder of 2021, while condo and townhome prices should hold steady.

“Housing activity throughout the pandemic has remained strong, so it comes as no surprise that the outlook for the remainder of the year continues on an upward trajectory, which is great for homeowners and their equity, but challenging for first-time buyers who have been priced out of the market,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “We must continue to educate Canadians from a practical, real world, point of view. What is affecting the Canadian housing market right now? Low Interest rates, economic stimulus, higher home-buying budgets, a higher savings rate, homeowners too scared to sell, and not enough new construction. These factors have created current market conditions.”

Adds Alexander, “The Canadian housing market has historically given homeowners great long-term returns and solid financial security, but there’s no doubt that the rapid price growth we’ve experienced recently is cause for concern. However, it’s not cause for panic. The data shows single-detached home price acceleration may be starting to level off in some urban centres, but prices continue to rise in many smaller cities and communities that were once havens for affordability. Real estate has been a boon to the Canadian economy, during the pandemic and before it. We believe in the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, but in order to protect it, we need to acknowledge and address the housing supply shortage. Our current government needs to stop applying band-aids and cure the problem at its root.”

About the 2021 RE/MAX Fall Housing Market Report

The 2021 RE/MAX Fall Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The fall outlook is based on predictions of RE/MAX brokers and agents. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021-August 31, 2021.

RE/MAX 2021 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Canada Housing Market Forecast

Average prices of homes in Canada expected to increase
Re-location trend seen among Canadian home buyers
The impact of COVID-19 on Canada’s housing market
Canadian Housing Market Insights

Average Price of Houses in Canada Expected to Go Up

RE/MAX Canada expects average residential prices to rise 4% to 6% in 2021

35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021
45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021
Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021
52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021

Canadians on the move: Not an exodus, but the re-location trend across Canadian housing market is real.

RE/MAX Canada is anticipating healthy housing price growth in 2021, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for home buyers and putting upward pressure on prices. Due to these factors, the 2021 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report estimates a four to six per cent increase in the average residential sales price nation-wide.

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“We’ve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence since the summer that households are considering significant lifestyle changes by relocating to less-dense cities and neighbourhoods,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “This has sparked unprecedented sales this year in suburban and rural parts of Canada and we expect this trend to continue in 2021.”

Despite the disruption of the virus, consumers are feeling optimistic, according to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, with 52 per cent of Canadians eyeing real estate as one of the best investment options in 2021, and expressing confidence that the Canadian housing market will remain steady next year.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Canadian Housing Market

While many economists predicted employment disruptions would negatively impact the Canadian housing market, the pandemic directly influenced only six per cent of Canadians to sell their home, according to the survey. Furthermore, 40 per cent of Canadians realized that their home needed renovations during the pandemic, and 29 per cent discovered that they need more space.

When it comes to where Canadians would prefer to live – urban, suburban or rural – they are evenly split, with roughly three in 10 preferring to live in each area. In fact, many suburban markets across the country have been heavily impacted by out-of-town buyers, a segment that is expected to drive market activity in 2021. This was a trend that was evident in many regions across the country, including North Bay, Kingston, Moncton and Greater Vancouver, among others.

Unsurprisingly, younger Canadians (under age 35) are significantly more likely to have realized that they need more space and are motivated to move out of their current neighbourhood.

“Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “While we’ve seen a significant shift in buyer preferences this year, we believe factors such as the supply issue, pent-up demand and historically lower interest rates will continue to fuel activity in 2021.”

A deeper dive: 2021 Canadian housing market insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents were asked to provide an analysis on their local market activity in 2020, as well as an outlook for 2021. Heading into the new year, 84 per cent of RE/MAX brokers and agents surveyed are anticipating sellers’ markets.

WESTERN CANADA

Vancouver and Greater Vancouver are good examples of the steady activity that’s anticipated to continue in 2021. According to the RE/MAX broker network in western Canada, sellers’ markets are likely in both regions next year, driven in large part by low inventory levels, low interest rates and high demand, as was the case in 2020. In Greater Vancouver, suburban neighbourhoods such as Pitt Meadows, Ladner and Maple Ridge are expected to be top neighbourhoods next year due to affordability and easy access to more outdoor space. Both regions are expected to see average residential prices increase by four and five per cent respectively in 2021.

Markets in Calgary and Edmonton, on the other hand, are currently balanced, which is anticipated to continue into 2021. The luxury market in Edmonton continues to be strong, with seemingly no impact felt by the pandemic. Both regions are predicting to see average residential prices increase by two and three per cent next year.

Get more insights and download the infographics:
Victoria, BC
Nanaimo, BC
Vancouver, BC
North Vancouver, BC
West Vancouver, BC
Tri-City (Greater Vancouver), BC
Fraser Valley, BC
Kelowna, BC
Edmonton, AB
Calgary, AB
Saskatoon, SK
Regina, SK
Winnipeg, MB

ONTARIO

According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity across the province is estimated to remain very steady in 2021, with the potential for average sale price increases of between seven and 12 per cent in regions like London (10 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (seven per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (seven per cent), Niagara (12 per cent), and Kingston (10 per cent), Cornwall (10 per cent) and Thunder Bay (10 per cent). This is being attributed to high demand and low supply, coupled with shifting home-buying trends toward local liveability factors such as more space, larger yards and closer proximity to amenities like parks.

Move-up and move-over buyers are also impacting luxury segments in the province. Cities such as Ottawa and Hamilton-Burlington have seen a massive spike in demand for luxury homes since the start of the pandemic. This is expected to continue in 2021.

The urban-to-suburban buyer interest in Ontario has impacted Toronto’s downtown core, specifically for condos, which is currently a buyer’s market. Supply levels throughout Toronto are continuing to drop and are not expected to improve in 2021, which will impact average home prices. Immigrants are also expected to drive some market activity next year, which alludes to those coming to Toronto for education purposes, along with the expected influx of immigration from outside the country. Similar to Ottawa and Regina, Toronto’s luxury market remains unimpacted by COVID-19 and is driven by move-up buyers.

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Windsor, Ont.
London, Ont.
Niagara Region, Ont.
Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont.
Hamilton-Burlington, Ont.
Oakville, Ont.
Mississauga, Ont.
Toronto, Ont.
York Region, Ont.
Durham Region, Ont.
Brampton, Ont.
Barrie, Ont.
Collingwood, Ont.
Muskoka, Ont.
Sudbury, Ont.
North Bay, Ont.
Thunder Bay, Ont.
Kingston, Ont.
Ottawa, Ont.
Cornwall, Ont.

ATLANTIC CANADA

Much like the rest of the country, the majority of Atlantic Canada is a sellers’ market, which is anticipated to continue next year. In Moncton, Halifax and Saint John, housing activity has been driven primarily by out-of-province buyers and move-up buyers who have either expedited retirement plans or are working from home and no longer need to be in an office.

Overall, similar to other areas across the country, increased space has become a prominent buyer demand in the wake of the pandemic, with detached homes serving as the most popular home type in cities like Moncton, Saint John and Charlottetown. This is expected to persist in 2021 according to RE/MAX Canada brokers in the region.

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Fredericton, NB
Saint John, NB
Moncton, NB
Halifax, NS
Charlottetown, PEI
St. John’s, Newfoundland

Additional findings from the 2021 RE/MAX Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report:

More than one-third (36 per cent) would prefer to work with realtors who use technology/virtual services to enhance the buying/selling process
15 per cent of Canadians have spent more time researching/monitoring the real estate market during the first and second wave of the pandemic

About the 2021 RE/MAX Canada Housing Market Outlook Report
The 2021 RE/MAX Canada Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages and local real estate boards. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at blog.remax.ca.

About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,534 Canadians was completed between November 6 and 8, 2020 using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.51 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

RE/MAX FALL 2020 HOUSING MARKET REPORT

Canadian housing market expected to remain active for the remainder of 2020 due to pent-up demand and low inventory levels, say RE/MAX brokers and agents

Canadians showing more interest in suburban and rural homes for sale, as work and life dynamics shift

Canadian housing prices anticipated to increase by 4.6% in the third and fourth quarter according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. This is compared to the earlier prediction by RE/MAX brokers and agents of +3.7% at the start of the year.
32% of Canadians no longer want to live in urban centres, opting for rural or suburban communities instead.
Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canadian housing market, with 39% as confident as they were before the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident.

Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across the Canadian housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6 per cent during the remainder of the year. This is compared to the 3.7 per cent increase that was predicted in late 2019.

The pandemic has prompted many Canadians to reassess their living situations. According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 32 per cent of Canadians no longer want to live in large urban centres, and instead would opt for rural or suburban communities. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group.

Not only are Canadians more motivated to leave cities, but changes in work and life dynamics have also shifted their needs and wants for their homes. According to the survey, 44 per cent of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard.

“While COVID-19 lockdowns slowed the Canadian housing market at the start of a typically busy spring market, activity bounced back by early summer in many regions, including Vancouver and Toronto,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained, and current market activity further exemplifies this. Many homebuyers are now exploring different neighbourhoods that better suit their new lifestyles, and real estate agents are getting busier and working more with buyers from different major cities. According to our brokers and agents across the RE/MAX network, Canada’s fall market is expected to see spring market-like activity.”

Looking ahead at the Canadian housing market

RE/MAX brokers across Canada were asked to provide an analysis on market activity during COVID-19 lockdowns, assessing how their regions have bounced back with easing restrictions. They also provided a prediction of market activity for the remainder of 2020. Unsurprisingly, most provinces experienced a slowdown in March and April, with significant drops in activity up to 70 per cent year-over-year. Prices, however, have remained stable across the country. Heading into fall, 50 per cent of RE/MAX brokers and agents surveyed anticipate a modest increase in average residential sale prices.

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Western Canada Housing Market

While COVID-19 lockdowns in March and April slowed down the housing market in Western Canada, transactions in Kelowna, Saskatoon and Vancouver resumed by May, with sales in both May and June surpassing year-over-year levels. Many buyers put their plans on hold at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, but they returned to the market quickly to make up for lost time. Edmonton’s housing market quickly bounced back to pre-COVID levels in June, while Saskatoon experienced its busiest June in years; this momentum is anticipated to continue into the fall market, with RE/MAX brokers and agents estimating a three-per-cent increase in average residential sale prices for the remainder of the year. Overall, brokers and agents in Western Canada say the potential buyers they are talking to are not too concerned with a potential second wave of COVID-19 impacting their real estate journey, and RE/MAX brokers are estimating steady activity to round out 2020.

Regional housing market insights:
Victoria, BC
Nanaimo, BC
Vancouver, BC
Whistler, BC
Kelowna, BC
Edmonton, AB
Calgary, AB
Saskatoon, SK
Regina, SK
Winnipeg, MB

Ontario Housing Market

With Ontario being one of the hardest-hit provinces in Canada, markets like Niagara, Mississauga and Kitchener-Waterloo experienced significant drops in activity, but bounced back aggressively in June as economies began reopening. Toronto continues to be a sellers’ market with low listing inventory and high demand. An uptick in new listings is anticipated for the fall market, now that buyers and sellers are more comfortable engaging in the housing market, with all of Ontario now in phase three of re-opening. RE/MAX brokers estimate a five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price in Toronto for the remainder of the year. According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity in the province is estimated to remain steady in the fall, with the potential for modest price increases of up to six per cent in regions like Hamilton, Brampton and London.

Regional housing market insights:
London, Ont.
Niagara Region, Ont.
Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont.
Hamilton-Burlington, Ont.
Mississauga, Ont.
Toronto, Ont.
Brampton, Ont.
Sudbury, Ont.
Thunder Bay, Ont.
Durham Region, Ont.
Ottawa, Ont.

Atlantic Canada Housing Market

Regions with low case counts of COVID-19, such as Halifax, Charlottetown and Saint John experienced slower activity in March, but the decline was less pronounced than that of some Ontario and Western Canada markets. Halifax continues to experience a shortage in listing inventory since before COVID-19, and the shortage has caused an uptick in average residential sale price. RE/MAX brokers anticipate a 10-per-cent increase in average residential sale price in Halifax for the remainder of the year. Activity in Atlantic Canada was back to pre-COVID-19 levels by May 2020, and like many sellers’ markets in Canada, multiple offer scenarios continue to happen in these regions.

Regional housing market insights:
Saint John, NB
Halifax, NS
Charlottetown, PEI
St. John’s, Newfoundland

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Pent-up demand causing sellers’ market-like conditions in recreational markets

When it comes to recreational property markets in Canada, the regions surveyed for the report experienced a slight decrease in sales activity in March, similar to most major cities in Canada; however, similar to other markets, this picked up quickly by May. Muskoka, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Whistler are all experiencing sellers’ market conditions, with pent-up demand and low inventory driving a modest increase in pricing. According to RE/MAX brokers, average prices in these recreational markets are estimated to remain stable for the remainder of 2020.

In lockstep with the Leger survey revealing increased consumer interest in relocating to rural areas, as well as 48 per cent of Canadians wanting to living closer to green space, RE/MAX brokers and agents have reported that many buyers in Toronto and Vancouver, who are now working remotely, have expressed interest in regions like Muskoka and Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Whistler, in search of more space and access to nature.

Canada’s luxury real estate continues to thrive

While the classification of “luxury homes” is specific to each region and differs across the country by minimum pricing, Canada’s overall luxury market has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with market conditions unchanged from the beginning of the year in most regions.

When it comes to the hottest Canadian housing markets of Toronto and Vancouver, the luxury segment here is considered balanced, with Vancouver pushing into a sellers’ market. Vancouver is beginning to see more interest from move-up buyers instead of the foreign buyers who drove demand in Vancouver’s luxury market prior to COVID-19. This was likely due to travel restrictions brought on by the pandemic. In Toronto, activity was slower than usual this spring as buyers did not have any urgency to transact during the pandemic. Both luxury markets are could likely remain balanced for the remainder of the year, according to RE/MAX luxury specialists.

The luxury segment in secondary markets such as Hamilton are seeing a slight uptick in activity, with high-end buyers also seeking more square footage and larger properties outside of city centres. Hamilton has experienced an increase in buyer interest from residents from Brampton and Mississauga looking to relocate to the region.

“The classically hot spring market that was pushed to the summer months due to the COVID-19 pandemic created a surprisingly strong market across Canada and across all market segments,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Looking ahead, government financial aid programs may be coming to an end in September, which could potentially impact future activity; however, the pent-up demand and low inventory dynamic may keep prices steady and bolster activity for the remainder of 2020. Overall, we are very confident in the long-term durability of the market.”

Survey respondents split on their confidence in the Canadian housing market

The survey found that Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canada’s real estate market, with 39 per cent as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37 per cent slightly less confident. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56 per cent of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell.

In re-contacting the respondents who lost confidence about their local housing market from the RE/MAX Global Outlook Report survey that was conducted in May 2020, asking if their confidence level in their market has changed since the start of the pandemic, 40 per cent are now as confident as they were before the pandemic. This is compared to their responses in May, which found that 58 per cent were less confident in their housing market, alluding to growing optimism in the market as COVID-19 lockdown restrictions continue to ease across the country.

Additional highlights from the 2020 Fall Canadian Market Outlook Report Survey:

48 per cent of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
48 per cent of Canadians say its more important than ever to live in a community close to hospitals and clinics
33 per cent of Canadians would like more square footage in their home and have realized they need more space
44 per cent of Canadians want a home with more outdoor space and personal amenities (i.e. balcony, pool etc.)

About the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report

The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca.

RE/MAX 2020 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Average home price expected to rise by 3.7% next year

• Increased consumer confidence could be a key factor affecting the housing market in 2020
• 51% of Canadians are considering a home purchase in the next five years, up from 36% at the same time last year
• Only two in 10 Canadians say that the mortgage stress test negatively affected their ability to purchase a home in 2019

RE/MAX is calling for a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected next year, with the RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report estimating a 3.7 per-cent increase in the average residential sale price.

Most individual markets surveyed across Canada experienced moderate price increases year-over-year from 2018 to 2019. However, some regions in Ontario continue to experience higher-than-normal gains, including London (+10.7 per cent), Windsor (+11 per cent), Ottawa (+11.7 per cent) and Niagara (+12.9 per cent).

As more Canadians have adjusted to the mortgage stress test and older Millennials move into their peak earning years, it is anticipated that they will drive the market in 2020, particularly single Millennials and young couples. A recent Leger survey conducted by RE/MAX found that more than half (51 per cent) of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years, especially those under the age of 45.

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BRITISH COLUMBIA

Reduced foreign buyer activity has opened up more opportunity for local buyers in Greater Vancouver’s condo market. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. The low absorption rate is expected to bring down average residential sale prices in 2019 by three per cent

Similarly, the number of sales year-over-year has dropped by 33 per cent in Kelowna. Rising interest rates, government policy changes and the mortgage stress test were all factors that contributed to the decline, which is expected to continue into 2019. Average residential sale prices increased by six per cent year-over-year from $674,930 in 2017 to $718,915 in 2018, with prices expected to decrease by three per cent in 2019.

“The drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadians’ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “The situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market.

THE PRAIRIES

Alberta continues to experience slowing economic conditions, which have contributed to a decrease in average residential sale prices in Calgary, from $478,088 in 2018 to $460,532 in 2019. Condos are the easiest way for first time homebuyers to get into the market, with starter units going for as low as $150,000. While the city’s unemployment rate continues to remain high compared to the rest of Canada, the population is increasing, with more people moving to the city from other parts of the province.

On the other hand, Winnipeg has shown a small increase in average residential sale price, both for freehold and condominium properties, by 1.5 and 0.8 per cent, respectively. The number of properties sold also increased by five per cent, from 8,139 in 2018 to 8,539 in 2019. Immigration to the city, in combination with reasonable prices and ample supply of inventory, is expected to drive sales going into 2020. Regina also saw the number of properties sold increase by more than five per cent year-over-year, despite being one of the few markets where the effects of the mortgage stress test are still being felt.

ONTARIO

Toronto is set to experience a strong housing market in 2020. Lower unemployment rates, economic growth and improved overall affordability in the Greater Toronto Area are expected to drive the market forward. The estimated average sale price increase for 2020 is six per cent, two points higher than the growth experienced between 2018 ($736,256) and 2019 ($766,236). The city saw 76,413 properties sold in 2019, up 12 per cent from 2018 (68,064). While Toronto is experiencing its “busiest” construction season ever, housing supply still falls short of the demands of the city’s rapidly growing population.

Cities such as Ottawa and Windsor are seller’s markets, showing substantial increases in average residential sale price at 11.7 and 11 per cent, respectively. This strong growth is expected to continue into 2020, with Ottawa’s new LRT system impacting surrounding development and Windsor’s continued affordability attracting young professionals to the area. Buyers are also not burdened by the mortgage stress test, as they were in 2018.

The Niagara region is also showing strong growth, with average residential sale price increasing almost 13 per cent, from $378,517 in 2018 to $427,487.50 in 2019. Value-conscious consumers from the Greater Toronto Area are buying in droves, with many choosing to live in the region while commuting to Toronto.

“Southern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions still seeing double-digit gains,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Thanks to the region’s resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.”

ATLANTIC CANADA

In Atlantic Canada, Halifax and Saint John have experienced solid price appreciation of six and five per cent, respectively. Affordability continues to attract many buyers in the region, most of whom are buying single family homes. At the same time, the region’s multi family and condo market is being driven by retirees. Conversely, the real estate market in St. John’s is expected to recover in 2020, with increased consumer confidence expected to bring about stabilization. However, the city’s aging population and high rate of outbound migration is expected to have an impact on housing market activity at some point.

Key Findings from the 2020 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Omnibus Survey

Fifty-one per cent of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years. This is up from 36 per cent at the same time last year. The increase is attributed to consumers’ adjustment to the mortgage stress test and increased purchasing power. Only two in 10 survey respondents said the mortgage stress test has negatively impacted their ability to purchase a home.

Liveability continues to be important to Canadians, with more than half wanting to live closer to green spaces and shopping/dining locations. Specific figures:

• 62% of Canadians would like to live near shopping/dining locations
• 59% would like to live closer to green spaces
• 30% would like to live closer to work
• 36% would like to live closer to public transit

Learn about RE/MAX real estate franchise opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Region and Western Canada.

RE/MAX 2019 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

CANADIAN HOME PRICES EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 1.7 PER CENT IN 2019

Modest price increases are expected in 2019, as the RE/MAX 2019 Housing Market Outlook estimates the average sales price to increase by 1.7 per cent. Housing markets across the country have stabilized in 2018, after the unprecedented increases in average sales price that many markets experienced in 2017. However, there continue to be some outliers in 2018 average sales price gains, particularly in areas outside of the main city centres, such as Chilliwack (+ 13%), Windsor (+13%), London (+17%) and Charlottetown (+11%).

It is anticipated that the market will continue to stabilize, as Canadians will start to feel the pinch of higher interest rates as they move forward with their home-buying plans in 2019. A recent survey revealed almost one-third (31 per cent) of Canadians said higher interest rates have not affected their ability to get an affordable mortgage thus far. However, this is expected to change in 2019. A separate survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents found 83 per cent predict rising interest rates will make it more difficult for Canadians to purchase a home next year.

British Columbia
Reduced foreign buyer activity has opened up more opportunity for local buyers in Greater Vancouver’s condo market. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. The low absorption rate is expected to bring down average residential sale prices in 2019 by three per cent

Prairies
Slowing economic conditions in Alberta have contributed to a decrease in average residential sale prices in Edmonton, from $393,003 in 2017 to $379,539 in 2018. While economic recovery is expected to take some time, the luxury market is thriving, with prospective investors in cannabis and migrant speculators driving this new segment. Meanwhile in Calgary, the market is expected to stay relatively flat in 2019 due to its reliance on the oil and gas industry, and further real estate hindrances like the mortgage stress test.

Conversely, Winnipeg has shown a moderate increase of average residential sale price, rising from $315,720 in 2017 to $323,001 in 2018. Looking ahead to 2019, prices are expected to continue on this upward trajectory, with an expected increase of four per cent. Although the senior population is downsizing, immigration to Winnipeg from urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver (15,000 people move to Manitoba every year) is expected to drive sales going into 2019. In Saskatchewan, both Regina and Saskatoon have experienced a buyers’ market which is set to prevail into 2019.

Ontario
In Toronto, rising interest rates and the mortgage stress test were the two major factors affecting market activity this past year, with average sale prices dropping by four per cent from $822,572 in 2017 to $789,181 in 2018, and unit sales down by 16 per cent. Lack of affordability in the single-detached segment will make it difficult for buyers wanting to enter the freehold market. The resale condo market, on the other hand, now represents almost 37 per cent of total residential sales, with its relative affordability fueling the rise of vertical growth. Average residential sale price is expected to increase by two per cent in 2019.

Communities such as Ottawa and London are sellers’ markets, showing increased growth in average residential sale price. This trend is expected to continue into 2019, however rising interest rates and the stress test continue to make it difficult for prospective buyers in other Ontario communities, including Barrie, Oakville and Durham regions.

Due to the stress test and increasing interest rates, we are seeing more buyers in traditionally affordable regions in Ontario unable to enter the market,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “This is particularly true for first-time buyers and single Millennials, as evident in cities like Brampton, Kingston and Durham.

Atlantic Canada
In Atlantic Canada, Halifax, Saint John and St. John’s have all experienced stable price appreciation in 2018. Detached homes continue to be the most in-demand property type, while the region’s aging population and retirees are driving the condominium market. The economic slowdown and drop in oil prices in St. John’s have resulted in a buyer’s market, but activity is expected to pick back up in the latter half of 2019.

The RE/MAX 2019 average residential sale price expectation for Canada is an increase of 1.7 per cent.

Key Findings from the RE/MAX 2019 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Omnibus Survey

Thirty-six per cent of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years. This is down from 48 per cent at the same time last year. The decrease is attributed to actual and perceived impacts of the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates on housing affordability. Thirty-one per cent of survey respondents said higher interest rates have not affected their ability to get an affordable mortgage so far, but the risk of future rate hikes, as indicated by RE/MAX brokers and agents, might affect these buyers in 2019.

Liveability continues to be important to Canadians, with more than half wanting to live closer to green spaces, work and better access to public amenities. Despite the apparent popularity of recreational cannabis since legalization in October 2018, 65 per cent of respondents said they do not want to live near a retail cannabis store. Specific figures:

52 per cent of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
47 per cent would like better access to public amenities
35 per cent would like to live closer to work
37 per cent would like to live closer to public transit
35 per cent would like to move to a different neighbourhood
59 per cent strongly disagree with living near a retail cannabis store

RE/MAX 2018 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

THIS PAST YEAR SAW THE SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED HOME AND CONDO MARKETS DIVERGE ON DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT PATHS IN CANADA’S TWO HIGHEST-PRICED REAL ESTATE MARKETS, GREATER VANCOUVER AND THE GREATER TORONTO AREA, AS REVEALED IN THE 2018 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK.

The trend is expected to continue into 2018 as a mix of relative affordability for condo units and price appreciation for detached homes in recent years, combined with government policy changes in both markets, has helped push an influx of buyers toward condo ownership.

In Greater Vancouver, demand for condos continues to outpace supply, resulting in the average price of a condo rising an estimated 16 per cent year-over-year, from $553,604 in 2016 to $643,778 in 2017. The GTA’s condo market also saw price appreciation of 22 per cent in 2017, as the average sale price for a condo rose to an estimated $523,437, up from $429,241 in 2016. As condo prices rose, sales for single-family detached homes declined 25 per cent in Greater Vancouver and 22 per cent in the GTA year-over-year between January and the end of October 2017.

The RE/MAX 2018 average residential sale price expectation for Canada is an increase of 2.5 per cent as the desire for home ownership remains strong, particularly among Canadian millennials.

According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX, the appetite for home ownership remains strong with roughly half of Canadians (48 per cent) considering the purchase of a home in the next five years. Of those who are considering purchasing a home, the top three reasons for doing so are to upgrade on their current home, to purchase a starter home as a means of entering the housing market and to upsize from their current home to accommodate a change in family make-up. The survey also found that access to outdoor spaces was a key factor for many Canadians when considering purchasing a home, with 87 per cent agreeing that access to green space was important to them and 82 per cent agreeing that having a backyard was important.

In order to find a balance between the home features they’re looking for and affordability, many buyers are continuing to look at real estate markets outside of the country’s largest urban centres. These move-over buyers leaving the GTA and Greater Vancouver have contributed to increased demand and considerable year-over-year average price increases in Kelowna (nine per cent), London-St. Thomas (18 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (15 per cent), Barrie (19 per cent), Durham region (19 per cent), Niagara (23 per cent), Kingston (eight per cent), and Ottawa (10 per cent).

Much of the activity in regional markets across Ontario was fuelled by price appreciation in Toronto during the first four months of the year prior to the introduction of the provincial government’s Fair Housing Plan. The 16-point plan introduced a 15 per cent non-resident speculation tax, which slowed demand from overseas buyers in the upper-end of the market. The policy changes as a whole curtailed activity significantly for single-family detached homes throughout the GTA in the short-term.

The new OSFI mortgage qualification rules that come into effect on January 1, 2018 also impacted housing market activity toward the end of this year and are expected to slow activity in real estate markets across Canada in the first part of 2018. This fall, a number of regions including Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Mississauga and Oakville experienced increased demand from buyers looking to purchase homes before the new stress test regulations take effect.

It is expected that the new mortgage stress test will slow activity across Canada during first few months of 2018 and at the end of November, the Bank of Canada predicted that the new regulations could disqualify up to 10 per cent of prospective home buyers who have down payments of 20 per cent or more. The regions expected to feel the greatest impact of decreased buyer purchasing power are Victoria, Greater Vancouver, Kelowna, North Bay, London-St.Thomas, Barrie, Hamilton-Burlington, the GTA, Durham region, Kingston, Ottawa, Halifax and St. John’s.

As oil prices continue to stabilize, both Calgary and Edmonton have experienced modest average residential sale price increases in 2017. In Calgary, the average residential sale price rose by approximately two per cent, to $487,931 up from $478,100 in 2016. Buyers and sellers remain relatively tentative, but the city’s ongoing evolution into a major tech and distribution hub, as seen with Amazon’s recent announcement that Calgary will house one of the company’s key distribution centres, is expected to increase confidence in the real estate market moving forward. In Edmonton, sales rose by an estimated five per cent year-over-year, from $357,916 to $375,788 in 2017, with a variety of new infrastructure projects, including construction on the Valley Line expansion of the LRT system, expected to contribute to increased activity in the coming years.

RE/MAX 2017 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

IGH DEMAND AND LOW SUPPLY CONTINUED TO CHARACTERIZE VANCOUVER’S AND TORONTO’S HOUSING MARKETS THROUGHOUT 2016 AS COMPETITION FROM BUYERS FOR LIMITED INVENTORY OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES PUSHED PRICES HIGHER.

The average residential sale price increased 13 per cent in Greater Vancouver to approximately $1,020,300 and rose 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to an estimated $725,857. Although demand remains high in both urban centres, limited inventory in the freehold market, the new 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax in Vancouver and the recent tightening of mortgage rules by the federal government are expected to soften market activity in the short term. In 2017, RE/MAX estimates average residential sale price will increase by two and eight per cent in Greater Vancouver and the GTA respectively.

Regional markets in close proximity to Canada’s highest-price cities continued to experience steady interest from local move-up buyers and buyers from these cities (“move-over” buyers) who are looking to find a balance between affordability and square footage. This year there were considerable year-over-year average price increases in Barrie (16 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (20 per cent), the Fraser Valley (20 per cent) and Kelowna (14 per cent).

Regulation changes at both the provincial and federal level towards the end of 2016 are already starting to impact activity in certain markets. The 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax is expected to slow this trend somewhat, as price appreciation declines in Vancouver have resulted in some potential sellers staying in the Lower Mainland. The ripple effect of the foreign-buyer tax can also be felt in the upper end of the GTA and Montreal markets as some foreign investors are expected to look for properties in these regions rather than Vancouver. Measures taken by the federal government to tighten mortgage insurance criteria for new home buyers is expected to temper local rst-time buyer activity across the country in the short term, but is not expected to have a long-term impact in most regions.

Home ownership remains a priority for Canadians, with 53 per cent of respondents in a recent RE/MAX survey conducted by Leger expressing intent to purchase a home and 47 per cent expressing intent to do so in the next five to 10 years. Nearly one in three (30 per cent) Canadians plan to use the purchase of a home as an investment strategy to help fund their retirement, and 42 per cent of millennial respondents view it as a retirement funding strategy. A proportion of Canadians would also consider unconventional home financing options to realize their dream of ownership such as: purchasing a home with a family member (33 per cent); renting a room on a vacation rental site like Airbnb (15 per cent); renting out a room in their home (22 per cent); or even purchasing a home with a roommate (9 per cent).

The housing markets in Calgary and Edmonton remained relatively stable, with moderate declines in the number of sales and average residential sale price as a result of the prolonged recovery of the oil sector over the past two years. The average residential sale price in Edmonton decreased slightly, by two per cent year-over-year in 2016, while Calgary’s average residential sale price decreased by four per cent. Buyer activity is expected to pick up slightly in the second half of 2017 if employment opportunities in the oil sector continue to gradually come back to the province.

High inventory continues to be a factor in many regions including Regina, Montreal, Saint John and St. John’s, offering a good selection of product to first-time and move-up buyers in these cities. Local infrastructure projects and initiatives, such as preparations for Montreal’s 375th anniversary celebrations in 2017, are anticipated to provide a boost to these economies and their real estate markets next year.

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