Canadians Still Moving to Other Provinces for Housing Affordability

In the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, many developments formed in the Canadian real estate market, from the home-buying frenzy to intense bidding wars to an urban exodus. But there was something else that occurred, too: rampant interprovincial migration.

Households had relocated to other areas of the country in search of more affordable housing opportunities. No longer were families confined to living near their work in the big cities. Instead, because many companies adopted remote work policies, employees could keep their jobs and live in different provinces.

Some provinces enjoyed a vast influx of newcomers, while others endured a fleeing population.

“Pandemic restriction severity, housing affordability, and telework adoption all appear to have influenced the trend—in contrast to past periods of strong out-migration that mirrored starker differences in regional economic conditions,” Scotiabank economists wrote in a research note. “It is not yet clear if this is a permanent shift.”

So, how noticeable were the changes?

According to data from Statistics Canada, Nova Scotia waved hello to a record high of 12,650 permanent residents in 2022, up 38 per cent from the previous year.

British Columbia suffered its first net loss in interprovincial migration in nearly a decade, with approximately 5,000 people leaving and moving to another province or territory.

Over the last two years, Ontario posted a net loss of about 47,000 people, the highest figure on record.

Comparable trends were found all over the country.

In addition, Canadians are continuing to move away from census metropolitan areas (CMAs), but they are also heading to smaller communities.

“But the trends were already evident before. Analysts have cited notoriously high house prices as instrumental in the movement away from the largest CMAs,” wrote Wendell Cox, a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. “The Canadian Dream for both aspiring natives and immigrants could be increasingly realized in smaller areas, not only in central Canada, the Prairies and the West, but also even in the Maritimes.”

Now that economic conditions are stabilizing, most pandemic-era restrictions have been lifted, and offices are reopening their doors, is interprovincial migration still ubiquitous?

Canadians Still Considering Moving to Another Province

According to the RE/MAX 2023 Housing Market Outlook report, nearly one-fifth (15 per cent) of Canadians are still considering moving to another province for better housing opportunities.

Moreover, the report found that non-homeowners are twice as likely to relocate to a different province.

But this trend is complemented by three other findings in the report:

• 73 per cent of Canadians believe homeownership is the best long-term investment they can make.
• 54 per cent of Canadians feel confident their financial situation will remain stable in 2023.
• 55 per cent of Canadian housing markets will shift into balanced territory or a buyer’s market.

Many places across the country are anticipated to see further price declines in the upcoming year, according to the 2023 outlook. This could provide ample opportunity for households wanting to buy a home in another city.

Here is a look at some of the urban centres and municipalities that are expected to see a drop in prices this year:

• Greater Vancouver Area, British Columbia: -5 per cent
• Kelowna, British Columbia: -10 per cent
• Winnipeg, Manitoba: -8.5 per cent
• Greater Toronto Area, Ontario: -11.8 per cent
• Fredericton, New Brunswick: -3.5 per cent

With interest rates at or near their peak and inventory levels rising at a modest pace, this could be a terrific time to purchase a detached, semi-detached, townhome, or condominium unit.

“We’re confident that as economic conditions improve and the market continues to even out into Q3/Q4 2023, a more-regular pace of activity will resume. It’s especially critical during challenging economic times that staying informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help Canadians clarify some of the unknowns, help them find a home within their means, and ultimately make the best decision possible,” said Elton Ash, the Executive Vice President at RE/MAX Canada, in a statement.

Where Will Canadians Move in the Next Year?

Scotiabank economists noted that the trend suggests that more people, especially in Ontario, are choosing Atlantic Canada rather than the Prairies, despite the clear advantages of the latter.

But what about immigration levels? With Canada projected to open its doors to roughly one million newcomers in the next few years, these interprovincial trends might be offset by immigrants settling in British Columbia and Ontario. Suffice it to say mobility levels could become a substantial contributor to the Canadian real estate market over the next year.