The average residential sale price in Fredericton/Oromocto housing market has increased by 6.2 per cent across all property types between 2023 and 2024 from $320,378 to $340,320. The number of sales transactions increased by 4.25 per cent for the same period (from 1,954 to 2,037). The total number of listings increased by 8.5per cent (from 2,668 in 2023 to 2,896 in 2024). The number of new listings also increased by 8.5 per cent (from 2,668 in 2023 to 2,896 in 2024). Looking ahead to 2025, Fredericton/Oromocto is expected to transition to a seller’s market. In 2025, average prices across all property types are anticipated to increase by 5.5 per cent, while the number of sales is expected to remain flat. Total listings are expected to decrease due to ongoing uncertainty in the market.
First-time buyers, retirees, investors and buyers of distressed sales (those forced to sell due to rising costs) are expected to drive market activity in 2025, with single-detached houses accounting for the bulk of sales activity in the region.
First-time homebuyers are typically purchasing smaller condominiums, semi-detached houses and older detached houses within the $300,000 price point. Move-up buyers are in the market for single-detached homes that offer adequate space for growing families in the $375,000 – $450,000 price range. Retirees are looking to downsize, buying small one-level homes, condos, townhomes, mini-homes priced from $250,000 – $300,000.
For new construction activity in the region, garages will be important, along with building in family-friendly areas and close proximity to schools.
Heading into 2025, home sellers feel that their homes should yield big increases, due to post-pandemic activity from 2021 to 2023.
Lower interest rates will benefit buyers as this will help make homes more affordable. In addition to lower interest rates, 30-year amortization on new construction will make it easier for first-time homebuyers to purchase a home in the region.
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The average sale price in the Fredericton housing market has increased by 5.6 per cent year-over-year across all property types, between January 1 and July 31, 2024 (from $324,351 in 2023 to $342,633 in 2024). The number of sales increased by 3.1 per cent duringor the same time period (from 1,373 home sales in 2023 to 1,415 sales in 2024). The number of listings also increased by 7.8 per cent (from 1,893 in 2023 to 2,041 in 2024). Looking ahead to teh fall market, the average sale price across all property types in the Fredericton housing market is anticipated to increase by two per cent through the remainder of 2024, while the number of sales is expected to increase by roughly 1.5 per cent.
The Fredericton housing market is currently a seller’s market, which is anticipated to continue into the fall. The shorter the supply, the more people looking to buy the same home, which puts upward pressure on prices.
The biggest factors contributing to the housing shortage in Fredericton include:
• Not enough new listings
• Not enough new construction
• Construction delays as a result of labour shortages and increased material costs
• Exclusionary zoning/land availability
On September 4, the Bank of Canada will share its next interest rate announcement. If two more interest rate cuts are announced by the Bank, this will help increase mortgage approval amounts so people can better afford to buy homes. However, further rate cuts could also increase multiple-offer scenarios, which will in turn raise home prices. Buyers are paying more than they should be paying, due to immense competition on new listings. The trend of lower interest rates in 2024 is driving up prices, making it hard for a buyer to get a home due to more competition.
Fredericton housing market to favour sellers in 2021, prices expected to rise 3-4%
The Fredericton housing market is expected to sit in seller’s market territory in 2021 due to a lack of inventory, which has been a common trend across many Canadian housing markets, which have prices trend upward in 2020. Indeed, the average selling price of detached homes in Fredericton increased to $211,023 in 2020 (Jan. 1 – Oct. 31), up from $196,606 in 2019 (Jan. 1 – Dec. 31). Meanwhile, the average price of condominiums in the region reached $168,478 in 2020 (Jan. 1 – Oct. 31) down from $172,412 in 2019 (Jan. 1 – Dec. 31). However, condo prices are expected to pull ahead once 2020 full-year data has been reported. With housing supply expected to be a continuing challenge next year, the RE/MAX outlook for Fredericton residential real estate in 2021 is an increase in average price of 3 to 4%, to approximately $196,391 across all property types.
With that said, COVID-19 is expected to have an impact on activity and supply levels. The number of home sales in the region is expected to increase 5% in 2021, pending stabilization of infection rates and a possible vaccine, prompting more people to list their homes for sale, adding a much-needed boost to supply levels. If this indeed transpires, the market may shift toward more balanced territory. Inventory levels are expected to stay at around two to three months in 2021.
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Who’s driving the Fredericton housing market?
COVID-19 has prompted a shift in consumer demand, toward larger properties and homes with more square footage.
As is common under seller’s market conditions, Fredericton homebuyers have been more willing to compromise in order to secure a home.
Out-of-town buyers have been the main market driver in 2020, with condominium properties and detached homes experiencing the greatest demand, with 2020 year-to-date home sales (Jan. 1 – Oct. 31) in each of these categories just shy of full-year sales in 2019. However, all property types have been moving quickly in 2020, including “tiny homes.”
First-time homebuyers in Fredericton are typically young couples seeking single-detached homes in the range of $170,000 to $210,000. First-time buyers experienced some challenges getting into the market in 2020, including low inventory, rising prices and the overarching impacts of COVID-19. Move-up buyers in Fredericton, who are typically families, have also been challenged by low inventory and inflated prices. However, some relief could be in store, with interest rates expected to sit at historic lows, and more supply expected to come on stream in 2021.
The local condo market is being primarily driven by single homebuyers and young couples. As is the case across all property types, there is currently a shortage of condo properties for sale.
Fredericton’s hottest neighbourhoods
Fredericton’s top-selling neighbourhoods in 2020 were Killarney (Liberty and Lakeside Estates), Brookside West (North Side) and Downtown, based on the number of transactions. In 2021, a slight shift is expected, with high demand for Killarney, Downtown and the Hill Area. This is being attributed to high demand for single family homes, which are common in the downtown core and close to the university.
Fredericton new-home construction
New construction is being added to Fredericton’s “stretched” housing supply. New homes are increasing in price, due to the higher cost of construction materials and the shortage of homes putting pressure on prices. New construction is expected to continue adding much-needed supply in the area, however the rate of new construction is still too low to meet current demand.
Canadian housing market in 2021
Canadians are on the move. RE/MAX isn’t calling this an “exodus,” but the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real, and it’s just one focus of the RE/MAX 2021 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX Canada anticipates healthy housing price growth at the national level, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing and widespread housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.
Due to these factors, the 2021 RE/MAX 2021 outlook for average residential prices is an estimate of +4% to +6% nation-wide. Here’s the regional break-down:
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Additional report findings include:
- 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021
- 45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021
- Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021
- 52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021
“We’ve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence since the summer that households are considering significant lifestyle changes by relocating to less-dense cities and neighbourhoods,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “This has sparked unprecedented sales this year in suburban and rural parts of Canada and we expect this trend to continue in 2021.”
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The Fredericton housing market saw real estate activity come to a nearly complete halt in mid-March, but “pandemic pause” proved to be short-lived and it wasn’t long before home sales began to pick up again toward the end of April and moving into May, according to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report.
May 2020 home sales in Fredericton surpassed month-over-month and year-over-year levels, illustrating what many predicted would be a delayed start to the traditionally busy spring market. Indeed, the busy month of May continued into June, as sellers began to regain confidence and comfort in hosting showings in their homes, with strict safety protocols still in place.
Moving into the fall and based on recent activity, Fredericton home prices are expected to maintain their current value and remain stable. Homebuyers and sellers engaging in the local real estate market have maintained optimism that they will see a return to some sense of normalcy within the next year. In light of recent activity and positive consumer sentiments, RE/MAX anticipates a 2.5% increase in average residential sales in Fredericton, New Brunswick for the remainder of 2020.
Atlantic Real Estate Market Trends
Atlantic Canada regions reporting low case counts of COVID-19, such as Halifax, Charlottetown and Saint John saw reduced market activity in March, however the decline was less pronounced than that experienced by some Ontario and Western Canada markets. Halifax, Atlantic Canada’s biggest housing market, continues to experience a shortage in listing inventory that characterized the region before the pandemic. The shortage has prompted an uptick in average residential sale price, with a 10% increase anticipated for the remainder of the year. Activity in Atlantic Canada was back to pre-COVID-19 levels by May 2020, and like many sellers’ markets in Canada, multiple offer scenarios continue to happen in these regions.
Atlantic Real Estate Market Trends
Regions across the Atlantic region reporting low case counts of COVID-19, such as Halifax, Charlottetown and Saint John saw reduced market activity in March, however the decline was less pronounced than that experienced by some Ontario and Western Canada markets. Activity in Atlantic Canada was back to pre-COVID-19 levels by May 2020, and like many sellers’ markets in Canada, multiple offer scenarios continue to happen in these regions.
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Canadian Housing Market Trends
Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada’s housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6% during the remainder of the year. This is compared to the 3.7% increase that was predicted in late 2019.
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The pandemic has prompted many Canadians to reassess their living situations. According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 32% of Canadians no longer want to live in large urban centres, and instead would opt for rural or suburban communities. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group. Not only are Canadians more motivated to leave cities, but changes in work and life dynamics have also shifted their needs and wants for their homes. According to the survey, 44% of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard.
Canadians equally split on their confidence in the housing market
Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canada’s real estate market, with 39% as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56% of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell. “The classically hot spring market that was pushed to the summer months due to the COVID-19 pandemic created a surprisingly strong market across Canada and across all market segments,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Looking ahead, government financial aid programs may be coming to an end in September, which could potentially impact future activity; however, the pent-up demand and low inventory dynamic may keep prices steady and bolster activity for the remainder of 2020. Overall, we are very confident in the long-term durability of the market.” Additional highlights from the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report Survey:
- 48% of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
- 48% of Canadians say it’s more important than ever to live in a community close to hospitals and clinics
- 33% of Canadians would like more square footage in their home and have realized they need more space
- 44% of Canadians want a home with more outdoor space and personal amenities (i.e. balcony, pool etc.)
About the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments.
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