Toronto Condo Market: Investor Activity Stalls, End Users Drive Demand

Demand in the Greater Toronto condo market has softened year-over-year, with sales off 2023 levels by eight per cent, according to a new report from RE/MAX. The 2024 Canada Condominium Report reveals that close to 16,800 condo apartments and townhomes changed hands between January and August 2024, down from 18,263 sales during the same period in 2023. Overall condominium values fell almost two per cent, with average price now sitting at $732,648 for apartments and townhomes, down from $747,039 during the same period in 2023, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

Two buyer pools are impacting the Toronto condo market at present—investors and end users. The investment segment has stalled, as a growing number of condominium investors find themselves unable to cover their carrying costs when closing, despite a relatively strong rental market. In a July 2024 report, Urbanation and CIBC Economics examined the distribution of cash flow by dollar amount and found that 30 per cent of investors of new condos completed in 2023 were cash flow negative by $1,000 or more.

End users, especially those seeking larger one-bedroom-plus-den or two-bedroom units, are active in the condo market, particularly in the Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale (C03) and Bedford-Nortown, Lawrence Park and Forest Hill North (C04). Several new buildings in these areas have prompted a 25.3- and 13.3-per-cent uptick in sales activity respectively, while average price has edged slightly higher in Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale ($871,839 in 2024 compared to $863,681 in 2023).

Double-digit increases in year-to-date condominium sales in the 416 were also reported in west end communities such as High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles (up 15.7 per cent), High Park North, Junction, Lambton-Baby Point, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village (up 25.2 per cent); and in the east, the Beaches area (up 20.3 per cent). In the 905-area code, an uptick in condo activity was noted in Halton Hills (up 21.6 per cent) and Milton (up 13.3 per cent); and in Newmarket (up 30.6 per cent).

Close to 43 per cent of TRREB districts in the 416-area code reported modest gains in average price between January and August of 2024, led by the Annex, Yonge-St. Clair (C02), with a close to 14-per-cent increase in values. One in four markets in the 905-area code have posted gains in condominium values year-over-year.

Inventory levels continued to climb throughout much of the year as available resale units were joined by an influx of new completions on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Selection has vastly improved over year-ago levels, with over 8,300 apartment units actively listed for sale at the end of August, compared to 5,455 units during the same period in 2023. Almost 1,700 active listings were reported in the condo townhouse segment, up 53 per cent from the 1,110 posted in 2023. Pre-construction condominium assignments are still occurring as investors look to sell their units before registration, but the pace has subsided since 2023.

New completions have slowed in the second quarter of this year in Greater Toronto-Hamilton in large part due to the lack of investor interest, with starts off last year’s level by 67 per cent, according to Urbanation. Repercussions in the short-term will be negligible but the longer-term impact is expected to be substantial. Twenty-thousand new condominium units are planned for the GTA in 2025; 30,000 in 2026; and 40,000 in 2027. In 2028, the figure falls to 5,000 units. At that point, construction will heat up, but not fast enough to meet demand.

With a six-month supply of condominiums currently available for sale, the Greater Toronto condo market is heading into clear buyer’s territory. With values at or near bottom and Bank of Canada overnight rates trending lower, the fall market may represent the perfect storm for first-time buyers. As rates drop, more buyers are expected to enter the market in the months ahead. As absorption rates increase, the current oversupply will be diminished and demand will take flight, placing upward pressure on average prices once again.